Has the Jury Reached Its Verdict?

The hypothesis: austerity now will increase growth rates because businesses will invest because they will be confident that interest rates (or inflation, or something) will remain low.

The counter-hypothesis: austerity now will reduce growth rates (which can go below zero) because the government will spend less and tax more, which will cause businesses to be uncertain about having enough demand for their products, and thus to hold off on investments.

The test: austerity.

The results: Austerity has reduced growth because the government is spending less and taxing more, which has left business uncertain if they will have enough demand for their products and causing them to hold off on investments.

The verdict: suck it, austerians.

Grody to the Max

Today I spent the afternoon taking apart and reassembling my Kenmore-branded Whirlpool-made top-loading clothes washer (Series 80, model number 110.27822790).  What I found was so disgusting it's against the Geneva Convention to post pictures of it.  Well, actually, I didn't take pictures because I always forget to take pictures once I get my head into a project.  But it was disgusting in there.  Trust me on this.  And because it was disgusting in there that means my clothes are disgusting, including all the ones I can't bleach.  Grr.

Anyway, I strongly recommend to anyone that detects the slightest whiff of mold in their washing machine to at least take the cabinet off and look around.  There are loads of instructional videos on the web that walk you through everything.  It's not that hard to take the basket out on models like mine if you want to do the whole thing yourself, though it does require a special wrench.  Otherwise, call a pro.  Or if you're rich, buy a new washer.

Picture This and That: 2012 Exotic Creatures Edition

For reference, here's a chart of some of the exotic ILC cameras on the market (or announced and coming soon).  I haven't included makers of medium-format and large-format view cameras because they are just kits of parts, essentially, rather than complete cameras that are more-or-less usable out of the box.

	Uncommon			Unaffordable
Camera category	Fujifilm	Ricoh	Sigma	Hasselblad	Leica	Mamiya Leaf	Pentax	Phase One
RF-style MSC no sensor or lens	-	GXR *** n/a $350	-	-	-	-	-	-
Consumer DSLR / SLT / MSC body only	-	-	SD15 4.7MP * $1000	-	-	-	-	-
Professional DSLR / SLT body only	-	-	SD1 15.3MP * $2300	-	-	-	-	-
Rangefinder body only	X-Pro1 ** 16.0MP $1200	-	-	-	M9 18.1MP $7000	-	-	-
Fixed back medium format body only	-	-	-	-	S2 37.5MP $23000	-	645D 40.0MP $9000	-
Removable back medium format no lens or back	-	-	-	-	-	645DF n/a $6000	-	645DF n/a $6000
Removable back medium format with back no lens	-	-	-	HD4-40 40.0MP $18000	-	-	-	-
Removable back medium format with back and lens	-	-	-	HD4-31 31.7MP $14000	-	DM-28MP 28.0MP $10000	-	P 30+ 30MP $17000

* - output JPEG pixel count; actual photosite count is 3 times greater for the Foveon X3 sensor
** - shipping later in the year
*** - the GXR system uses bundled lens and sensor modules (aka lensors)

Picture This and That: March 2012 Comparison Chart Edition

Note: I post updated versions of this chart every six months or so.  Check the photography category for the latest.

Spring announcement season is over for 2012, so here's a chart of what's available today (or announced and coming soon).  The newcomers are the Nikon D4 and D800 digital single-lens reflex cameras, the Canon 5D Mk.III and 1D-X DSLRs, the Sony A57 single-lens translucent camera, the Olympus OM-D E-M5 mirrorless system camera, the Pentax K-01 MSC, and the Panasonic GX1 MSC.  Fujifulm re-entered the interchangeable lens camera market when introduced the X-Pro1 rangefinder-style camera in January, but I'm not including it for now because the high price means it will likely remain a relatively rare camera. Sony has put the last of its DSLR models to bed, and both Olympus and Samsung have probably discontinued all models as well.  Pentax announced the retirement of one camera, but it's still in stock.  The new cameras from Canon and Nikon replace similar existing models.

A previous version of this chart is here, and a general background post can be found here.  If you're a first-time ILC buyer, remember that cameras are just tools, and the raw pixel count is very likely not the most important feature to consider.  It's also important to consider what gets attached to the front of the camera body: glass.

		Big 2		Upstart	Little 4
Camera category	Brand (2010 ILC market share)	Canon (45%)	Nikon (30%)	Sony (12%)	Pentax (?)	Olympus (5%)	Panasonic (?)	Samsung (?)
RF-style MSC price w/ zoom	Low-end	-	-	NEX-C3 16.2MP $600	-	E-PM1 12.3MP $500	-	NX100 * 14.6MP $425
	Mid-Range	-	J1 10.1MP $650	NEX-5n 16.1M $700	-	E-PL3 12.3MP $650	DMC-GF3 12.1MP $550	-
	High-end	-	V1 10.1MP $900	NEX-7 24.1MP $1350	Q 12.4MP $900 **	E-P3 12.3MP $900	DMC-GX1 16.1MP $800	NX200 20.3MP $750
Consumer DSLR / SLT / MSC price w/ zoom	Beginner	1100D/T3 12.2MP $500	D3100 14.2MP $600	SLT-A35 16.2MP $650	K-r *** 12.4MP $600	E-620 * 12.2MP $600	-	NX10 * 14.6MP $700
	Mid-Range	600D/T3i 18.0MP $800	D5100 16.2MP $800	SLT-A57 16.2MP $800	K-01 16.3MP $999 **	E-M5 16.1MP $1000	DMC-G3 15.8MP $630	-
	Enthusiast	60D 18.0MP $1200	D7000 16.2MP $1450	SLT-A65 24.3MP $1000	K-5 16.3MP $1350	-	DMC-GH2 16.1MP $900	-
Professional DSLR / SLT price body only	Mid-size	7D 18.0MP $1600	D300s 12.3MP $1700	SLT-A77 24.3MP $1400	-	E-5 12.3MP $1600	-	-
	Mid-size full frame	5D Mk.III 22.3MP $3500	D800 36.3MP $3000	-	-	-	-	-
	Flagship action	1D X 18.1MP $6800	D4 16.2MP $6000	-	-	-	-	-
	Flagship studio	1Ds Mk.III 21.1MP $7000	D3x 24.5MP $8000	-	-	-	-	-

* - listed on manufacturer site but not in stores - probably discontinued
** - dual-lens kit
*** - still listed on manufacturer site and in stores, but officially discontinued
Update 2012-09-01: made minor edits

Asshole, now with Mendacity

Larry Summers, ladies and gentlemen.  Take it away, Felix.

Generation What?

Note: this is an updated version of an older post.

Below is a quick rundown of most of the reactors being marketed as of early 2012.  I'm using the term "marketed" somewhat loosely here, as not all reactors are being offered in all countries due to intellectual property rights, nationalism, or other considerations.  I have ignored a number of small reactor designs that I feel are just vaporware at this point.  The three small PWRs plus the ten of other types account for over half of the 24 models, but medium-large (for lack of a better term) PWRs such as the AP1000 have captured the overwhelming majority of the orders.

An oddity to note is that Westinghouse no longer markets a PWR derived from the ones it created in the 1960s due to a series of corporate mergers.  But the basic Westinghouse design lives on in the EPR, APWR, Amtea1 and CPR-1000 designs.  Westinghouse, which is 77% owned by Toshiba, now offers reactors derived from Combustion Engineering designs.  A minor point to note is that both GE-Hitachi and Toshiba are both marketing the ABWR.

By neutron speed, there are:

• 21 thermal reactors (150 to 4590 MWt)
• 3 fast reactors (30 to 2100 MWt)

By major type, there are:

• 14 pressurized water reactors (PWR; 150 to 4590 MWt)
• 4 boiling water reactors (BWR; 3370 to 4500 MWt)
• 3 pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR; 2080 MWt)
• 2 sodium-cooled fast reactors (LMFR; 30 and 2100 MWt)
• 1 lead-bismuth-cooled fast reactor (LMFR; 75 MWt)

By design family, there are:

• 4 Westinghouse (WH) pressurized water reactors
• 4 Combustion Engineering (CE) pressurized water reactors
• 4 GE boiling water reactors
• 3 VVER pressurized water reactors (Russian PWRs evolved separately from western designs)
• 3 CANDU heavy water-moderated reactors
• 1 B&W small pressurized water reactor (probably derived from US Navy designs, may be new)
• 1 KLT-series small pressurized water reactor (evolution of Russian Navy designs)
• 1 BN-series sodium-cooled fast reactor (designed by a state-owned organization in Russia)
• 1 new small pressurized water reactor (stated as being derived from the AP1000, but so small that it's probably all new)
• 1 new small lead-bismuth-cooled fast reactor (probably a new design)
• 1 new small sodium-cooled fast reactor (probably a new design) 

By generation, there are:

• 12 "Generation III" designs (designs from the 1990s and 2000s with some passive safety features)
• 8 "Generation II+" designs (slight improvements over 1960s designs)
• 2 "Generation II" designs (basically 1960s designs)
• 2 designs I haven't classified because I lack familiarity with them

The term "generation" was introduced by the DOE several years ago in order to simplify the presentation of its strategy.  Right now it is pursing two goals: building evolved PWRs and BWRs (the Gen III models), and doing R&D on "Generation IV" reactors.  The marketing types have hijacked the nomenclature a bit, and have labeled some reactors "III+" as well as backfitted the "II+" designation on others.  I've ignored the III+ designation, but the II+ designation is not unreasonable because the designs have been worked on since they were first developed in the 1960s.

Reactor	Type	Gen.	MWt	MWe	Company	Family	Oper./ Const./ Frm. Pln.
4S	SCFR	?	30	10	Toshiba Power Systems	new SFR	0 / 0 / 0
Power Module	LBFR	?	75	25	Hyperion Power Generation	new LFR	0 / 0 / 0
BN-800	SCFR	II	2100	800	Atomstroyexport (Rosatom)	BN SFR	0 / 1 / 2
PHWR-700	PWHR	II	2170	640	NPCIL	CANDU	0 / 3 / 1
CANDU6	PWHR	II	2200	690	Candu Energy, Inc.	CANDU	11 / 0 / 0
EC6	PWHR	II+	2080	750	Candu Energy, Inc.	CANDU	0 / 0 / 0
CPR-1000	PWR	II+	3000	1000	China Guangdong Nuclear Power Group	ANP (WH) PWR	2 / 20 / 14
OPR-1000	PWR	II+	2825	990	Doosan Heavy Industries & Construction	DHIC (CE) PWR	7 / 3 / 0
System 80+	PWR	II+	3400	1120	Westinghouse (Toshiba)	CE PWR	0 / 0 / 0
VVER-1000	PWR	II+	3000	950	Atomenergoproekt / Atomstroyexport	VVER PWR	2 / 2 / 2
VVER-1200	PWR	II+	3200	1170	Atomenergoproekt / Atomstroyexport	VVER PWR	0 / 5 / 5
KLT-40S	PWR	II+	150	35	OKBM	SSSR PWR	0 / 2 / 0
ABWR	BWR	III	3900	1380	GE-Hitachi Nuclear Energy	GE BWR	2 / 4 / 0
ABWR	BWR	III	3900	1350	Toshiba Power Systems	GE BWR	2 / 1 / 2
Atmea1	PWR	III	3150	1150	Mitsubishi Heavy Industries-Areva NP	MHI/ANP (WH) PWR	0 / 0 / 0
AP1000	PWR	III	3400	1150	Westinghouse (Toshiba)	CE PWR	0 / 5 / 17
APR-1400	PWR	III	4000	1350	Doosan Heavy Industries & Construction	DHIC (CE) PWR	0 / 2 / 10
APWR	PWR	III	4450	1700	Mitsubishi Heavy Industries	MHI (WH) PWR	0 / 0 / 0
EPR	PWR	III	4590	1630	Areva Nuclear Power	ANP (WH) PWR	0 / 4 / 1
ESBWR	BWR	III	4500	1600	GE-Hitachi Nuclear Energy	GE BWR	0 / 0 / 0
Kerena	BWR	III	3370	1250	Areva Nuclear Power	KWU (GE) BWR	0 / 0 / 0
MIR-1200	PWR	III	3200	1170	Atomstroyexport/Skoda	VVER PWR	0 / 0 / 2
mPower	PWR	III	400	125	Babcock & Wilcox	USN PWR?	0 / 0 / 1
WSMR	PWR	III	800	225	Westinghouse (Toshiba)	CE PWR?	0 / 0 / 0

Note: the PHWR-700 is not being marketed per say, but it is the current standard domestic plant for India, and there are several examples under construction.

One Hundred Mini-Presidents: January 2012 Edition

As is the case every two years, about one-third of the Senate is up for re-election in 2012.  Below is what I think (as of now, January 3) the outcome in November will be.  Among the tossups, Obama's coattails will be enough to pull along McCaskill in Missouri, which has an AA population of about 15%.  In Wisconsin, a re-energized left will turn out well enough to give Baldwin a victory.  In Montana, Obama hate will work to defeat Tester.  The race in Nevada I know little about, so for now I'll go with what the polling says.  If Obama really drives turnout up, Nevada might be a Dem pickup.  OTOH, if Obama only wins narrowly, both Wisconsin and Missouri would fall to the Republicans, and possibly one or two others currently in the likely category.

Overall, the results below would be a lousy outcome for the left because there would be more than enough Conservadems to give Republicans effective control even if there are enough Democrats to retain nominal control (with the vote of the Veep).  (Note: I'm not 100% certain how the Veep's vote works when assigning control, but AFAIK it would be like any other vote where there is a tie.)  So, even if Obama wins (very likely) and the Democrats win back the House (unlikely but possible) the overall legislative environment will remain poor for most of the policies I'd like to see changed.

	Democratic	Republican
Carryovers	30	37
Contested	23	10
Certain holds	California (Feinstein)	Arizona (open R to any R)
	Connecticut (open D to Murphy)	Indiana (Lugar)
	Delaware (Carper)	Mississippi (Wicker)
	Hawaii (open D to Case/Hirono)	Tennessee (Corker)
	Maryland (Cardin)	Texas (open R to any R)
	Minnesota (Klobuchar)	Utah (Hatch)
	New Jersey (Menendez)	Wyoming (Barasso)
	New York (Gillibrand)
	Rhode Island (Whitehouse)
	Vermont (Sanders)
	Washington (Cantwell)
	West Virginia (Manchin)
Likely holds	Florida (Nelson)	Maine (Snowe)
	Michigan (Stabenow)
	New Mexico (open D to Heinrich)
	Ohio (Brown)
	Pennsylvania (Casey)
Tossups	Missouri (McCaskill)	Montana (Tester to Rehberg)
	Wisconsin (open D to Baldwin)	Nevada (Heller)
Likely flips	Massachusetts (Brown to Warren)	Nebraska (open D to any R)
		North Dakota (open D to any R)
		Virginia (open D to Allen)
2012 results	20	13
Swing	-3	3
2013-2014 seats	50	50