Glad to Be Wrong: 2012 Election Edition

As something of a pessimist when it comes to predictions, I'm always glad to be wrong.  Last week, I predicted a narrow win for Obama.  But the President won the Electoral College handily, 332-206, verses my prediction of 290-248.  And I was two seats too negative about the Senate, which I predicted to be split 53-47.  I was about right with the popular vote, which Obama won 50.3% to 48.1% to 2.6% (mainly for Gary Johnson), verses my prediction of 50% to 49% to 1%.

Unfortunately, I was several seats too positive about the House, as the Democrats only picked up seven seats in the House of Representatives.  I predicted a 230-208 split, but the final result looks like it will be 235 to 200 (barring any flips during a recount, which is unlikely).  The Republicans appear to have done a very good job of protecting their candidates during the 2011-2012 redistricting process.  This will make actually governing the country even harder than I expected, because the remaining Republicans will have even less reason to fear the displeasure of their constituents.  Another reason Republicans won't worry about reelection in 2014 is that there is a historical pattern of the president's party losing House seats in mid-term elections.  I haven't looked at the details yet, but I am fairly sure that none of the Republican freshman are moderates, so the caucus will be even more radical.  All this points to gridlock no matter how many generous offers of compromise Obama makes.

I'll be happy to be wrong about my prediction of gridlock, though it will take a bit longer than a week to see the outcome.

One Office to Herd Them All: November 2012 Edition

As is the case every four years, the grand prize for the election cycle is the office of the President of the United States of America.  This cycle pits the Democratic incumbent, Barack Obama, against the Republican challenger, Willard Romney.  The key to understanding the presidential race is that it is 51 state races, not one national race.  Given the electoral college system, which I really don't like, I believe (as of now, November 1st) that Obama will be the winner on November 6, with 290 electoral votes to 248 for Romney.  The best outcome Obama is likely to get is 332 to 206, and the worst is 265 to 273.  270 EVs is the threshold for winning.  269 EVs for each would send the election to the House of Representatives and the end of the world as we know it.  (I'm kidding about that last bit.  I hope.)  In reality, the chances of Obama losing in Nevada are less than 15%, so it would have to be a very bad night for the Democrats if Obama were to receive less than 271 EVs.  A lot of current polling gives Obama a victory in Virginia, but I think he will just barely lose.  Winning that state would put his EV total over 300, which doesn't mean much by itself, but people tend to fixate on nice, round numbers.

I'm not going to analyze the popular vote because it's complicated and it doesn't matter, strictly speaking.  It does matter a lot for legitimacy purposes, but only for Obama.  My guess is that the result will be about 50-49-1% in favor of the incumbent, which will make him a legitimate victor in the minds of Democrats and true swing voters, and would mostly shut the media up.  If Obama loses the popular vote but wins the electoral college, the press will insist that he bow to every Republican whim, which of course they did not do for Bush the Lesser.  That would be both entirely unfair and entirely unsurprising, because media has two separate standards for the two parties.

On election night, the first state to watch for will be Virginia, where polls close at 7PM EST.  If Obama takes that state, he'll almost certainly have won the election (given the near-certainty of Obama winning the 265 EVS in the higher confidence categories).  The networks may also call Florida at 7PM EST, but most likely they will wait until 8PM EST when polls in the panhandle close.  Florida is another state that would basically guarantee that Obama was victorious.  If Obama loses in both of those states, he will need to win Colorado, Iowa, or Nevada.  Those states close their polls at 9PM EST, 10PM EST, and 10PM EST respectively.  New Hampshire polls will close at 8PM EST, but by itself the state's 4 EVs cannot give Obama the win when added to his baseline of 265.  I think we'll have to wait until after 9 PM to see the good guy win.

	Certain Dem.	Likely Dem.	Lean Dem.	Lean Rep.	Likely Rep.	Certain Rep.
Alabama						9
Alaska						3
Arizona					11
Arkansas						6
California	55
Colorado			9
Connecticut	7
Delaware	3
District of Columbia	3
Florida				29
Georgia						16
Hawaii	4
Idaho						4
Illinois	20
Indiana					11
Iowa			6
Kansas						6
Kentucky						8
Louisiana						8
Maine *	4
Maryland	10
Massachusetts	11
Michigan	16
Minnesota	10
Mississippi						6
Missouri						10
Montana						3
Nebraska *						5
Nevada			6
New Hampshire			4
New Jersey	14
New Mexico	5
New York	29
North Carolina					15
North Dakota						3
Ohio		18
Oklahoma						7
Oregon	7
Pennsylvania		20
Rhode Island	4
South Carolina						9
South Dakota						3
Tennessee						11
Texas						38
Utah						6
Vermont	3
Virginia				13
Washington	12
West Virginia						5
Wisconsin		10
Wyoming						3
Subtotals	217	48	25	42	37	169
Baseline total		265			206
Grand Total	Obama		290	248		Romney

* - By state law, both Maine and Nebraska can split their electoral votes, but that won't happen in 2012.

Romney's Returns Rumors

There are so many reasons for Romney not to release his federal income tax returns.  Choose your speculation from the following:

1. He participated in the 2009 IRS Swiss tax haven amnesty.
2. He paid zero or negative taxes in one or more years.
3. He voted illegally in 2010.
4. He lied on legally binding documents about his status at Bain between 1999 and 2002.
5. He has various issues related to tithing (not 10% or more than his taxes).
6. He built his $100 million IRA using dubious means. (This may not be detailed in the returns, though.)
7. He gave $100 million to his sons using dubious means
8. He's worth a heck of a lot more than $250 million.
9. He made lots of now-embarrassing donations earlier in his career.
10. He committed outright fraud. (This is the least likely, IMHO, as his companies have shown considerable skill at legally "evading" taxes.)
11. He’s Mitt Fucking Romney, and he’s told all you people need to know.
12. All of the above

Presidential Candidate Tax Returns

From what I can tell, below are the years for which various presidential candidates and presidents have released their tax returns. Bold checks are for returns released as candidates, "e" is for estimate, "s" is for summary, and "p" is for partial.  Click to embiggen.