Tuesday, January 3, 2012

One Hundred Mini-Presidents: January 2012 Edition

As is the case every two years, about one-third of the Senate is up for re-election in 2012.  Below is what I think (as of now, January 3) the outcome in November will be.  Among the tossups, Obama's coattails will be enough to pull along McCaskill in Missouri, which has an AA population of about 15%.  In Wisconsin, a re-energized left will turn out well enough to give Baldwin a victory.  In Montana, Obama hate will work to defeat Tester.  The race in Nevada I know little about, so for now I'll go with what the polling says.  If Obama really drives turnout up, Nevada might be a Dem pickup.  OTOH, if Obama only wins narrowly, both Wisconsin and Missouri would fall to the Republicans, and possibly one or two others currently in the likely category.

Overall, the results below would be a lousy outcome for the left because there would be more than enough Conservadems to give Republicans effective control even if there are enough Democrats to retain nominal control (with the vote of the Veep).  (Note: I'm not 100% certain how the Veep's vote works when assigning control, but AFAIK it would be like any other vote where there is a tie.)  So, even if Obama wins (very likely) and the Democrats win back the House (unlikely but possible) the overall legislative environment will remain poor for most of the policies I'd like to see changed.

Certain holdsCalifornia (Feinstein)Arizona (open R to any R)
Connecticut (open D to Murphy)Indiana (Lugar)
Delaware (Carper)Mississippi (Wicker)
Hawaii (open D to Case/Hirono)Tennessee (Corker)
Maryland (Cardin)Texas (open R to any R)
Minnesota (Klobuchar)Utah (Hatch)
New Jersey (Menendez)Wyoming (Barasso)
New York (Gillibrand)
Rhode Island (Whitehouse)
Vermont (Sanders)
Washington (Cantwell)
West Virginia (Manchin)
Likely holdsFlorida (Nelson)Maine (Snowe)
Michigan (Stabenow)
New Mexico (open D to Heinrich)
Ohio (Brown)
Pennsylvania (Casey)
TossupsMissouri (McCaskill)Montana (Tester to Rehberg)
Wisconsin (open D to Baldwin)Nevada (Heller)
Likely flipsMassachusetts (Brown to Warren)Nebraska (open D to any R)
North Dakota (open D to any R)
Virginia (open D to Allen)
2012 results2013
2013-2014 seats5050

No comments: