Wednesday, October 23, 2019

EV Equivocation

I'm currently driving a lemon of a 2008 Subaru Outback 2.5i Limited.  This may or may not be Subaru's fault: they built the piece of shit that has failed in a way that no other car I've encountered has failed, but I failed to do adequate diligence when purchasing it used.  Currently, it's in a shop for some kind of wiring/electrical issue.  The shop claims they will have it back to me after four weeks in their possession.  I think they are lying to me. Fortunately, the head gaskets were done before I bought it.

No matter what the ultimate outcome, I am currently without a car and am having to rely on a combination of the local bus service, taxis, and company cars to get me to and from work.  It's a royal pain that adds hours to my commute. The situation has left me both time and the incentive to think about buying a new (to me, at least) car.  I'd like to buy a full-on BEV, but naturally there are complications.

The first complication is that I can't currently afford to buy a new BEV.  Fortunately, even though usable BEVs are relatively new, there are quite a few recent models to choose from.  Time for some research!

After assembling the data, I would say there are 5 distinct eras for EVs in the US:

1890-1930 Prehistoric era - EVs built when ICE technology was primitive but rapidly advancing
1990-2010 Primitive era - pre-lithium-ion compliance cars
2011-2016 First modern - compliance cars, plus Tesla
2017-2018 Second modern - compliance cars reaching usefulness, plus Tesla and the Bolt
2019-plus Third modern - mainstream-quality cars, plus leftover compliance cars

Here's some data for the first modern era.


2012 ModelEPA Range2013 ModelEPA Range2014 ModelEPA Range2015 ModelEPA Range2016 ModelEPA Range
BMWi381i381i381
ChevroletSpark EV82Spark EV82Spark EV82
Fiat500e87500e87500e87500e84
FordFocus Electric76Focus Electric76Focus Electric76Focus Electric76Focus Electric76
HondaFit EV82Fit EV82
KiaSoul EV93Soul EV93
Mitsubishii-MiEV62i-MiEV62i-MiEV62
NissanLeaf (also 2011)73Leaf75Leaf84Leaf84Leaf84 / 107
MercedesB250e87B250e87B250e87
SmartFourtwo ED68Fourtwo ED68Fourtwo ED68Fourtwo ED68
TeslaModel S139 / 208 / 265Model S139 / 208 / 265Model S208 / 265 / 242Model S208 / 240 / 270 / 270 / 253 / 253 / 265 / 265Model S
TeslaModel XModel X
ToyotaScion IQ EV38
ToyotaRAV-4 EV103RAV-4 EV103RAV-4 EV103
Volkswagene-Golf83e-Golf83

Look at the step to the second/third modern era.

2017 ModelEPA Range2018 ModelEPA Range2019 ModelEPA Range
Audie-Tron204
BMWi3114i3 / i3s114 / 107i3 / i3s153
ChevroletBolt238Bolt238Bolt238
Fiat500e84500e84500e84
FordFocus Electric115Focus Electric115
HondaClarity EV89Clarity EV89Clarity EV89
HyundaiIoniq EV124Ioniq EV124Ioniq EV124
HyundaiKona EV258
Jaguari-Pace234
KiaSoul EV93Soul EV111Soul EV111
KiaNio EV239
Mitsubishii-MiEV59
NissanLeaf107Leaf151Leaf150 / 226 / 215
MercedesB250e87
SmartFourtwo Electric Drive58Fourtwo Electric Drive58Fourtwo Electric Drive58
TeslaModel SModel SModel S
TeslaModel XModel XModel X
TeslaModel 3Model 3Model 3
Volkswagene-Golf125e-Golf125e-Golf125

The data is a bit difficult to look at since I had to split in two.  If you can't tell, the e-Golf went from 84 miles of range in 2016 to 125 in 2017.  The Leaf went from 84 (standard) to 107 (standard).  The Focus went from 84 to 115.  The Bolt was introduced in 2017 with 238.  The Clarity EV and Ioniq Electric were introduced in 2017 with 89 and and 124 miles respectively.  The Model 3 was hyped (but available in 2018, effectively).

2019 appears to have seen another big step in the BEV segment, with new models from Jaguar, Hyundai/Kia, and Audi.  The Leaf was substantially revised.  2020 will see the introduction of the Porsche Taycan and the Mercedes-Benz EQC at the high end of the market.

As far as individual models go, this is what I think of the 2012-2018 models.  Smart ED, i-Meiv, i3, IQ EV - basically silly.  RAV-4, Fit, Clarity, Spark - Cali only compliance cars.  Leaf - too many issues due to poor thermal regulation of the battery, at least in Vermont when charging outdoors.  Teslas - too expensive, and I really dislike the interiors.  Focus, B250e, 500e - low-ish ranges, but worth a second look.  Soul, Golf, Ioniq EV - low-ish ranges and air-cooled batteries, but still worth a second lock.  Bolt - the clear price/range standout.

Delving into the second-look models a bit, some have years that are clearly better. 500e - 2016-2018, with interior upgrade but no range change over 2013-2015.  Focus - 2017-2018, range upgrade over 2012-2016.  B250e - 2014-2017, all years similar. Soul - 2018, range upgrade over 2016-2017. Golf - 2017-2019, range upgrade over 2015-2016. Ioniq EV - 2017-2018, all years similar.

The second complication is that Vermont winters mean that any BEV will have a winter range substantially lower than the EPA-rated range.  I currently drive 12 miles per day to work, 5 days a week, plus another 10-15 miles for errands over the week.  I rarely travel far from home due to my work schedule, and of course I could rent if necessary.  So, assuming 75 miles of total use, I could in theory recharge just once a week with nearly every BEV that has been sold in the past few years.  In the winter, however, I'd probably need to charge 2 or 3 times a week, because BEV range is substantially affected by cold temperatures.

The third complication is my parking situation, and is related to the previous issue.  I have my own off-street parking spot adjacent to my unit, and a quick search of the internet indicates that people charge their BEVs outdoors.  I have a 120 volt outlet, but charging at that voltage is very slow.  Installing a 240 circuit and charger would be expensive as I would probably need a new breaker panel. Without the breaker panel, the total installed cost of a charger seems to be on the order of $1000-$1200.  Of course, I would need to add any equipment costs to that of the vehicle when choosing a model which would further limit my choices.  In addition to the costs, the only place for a charger is right where the snow gets plowed and shoveled.

So, after a bit of noodling, it seems like an EV is not in my immediate future, primarly due to my parking situation.  I probably could manage it, but it would be a hassle.  One way to mitigate the parking/charging problem would be to keep a second car for the winters and longer trips.  However, that would create significant ongoing expenses for insurance, as well as storage, as long-term street parking is out of the question in my neighborhood.

Next up: researching HEVs and PHEVs.