Update 2012/07/13 - Still happy I was wrong, wrong, wrong about this.
I'm not a SCOTUS watcher, so any prediction I make on the PPACA ruling due this week is a WAG. Nonetheless, based on the political nature of the case, rulings handed down last week, and the general trend of conservative actions over the past decade, I think the ruling will come down as follows: 5-4 to overturn the mandate, 5-4 to overturn the Medicaid expansion, and 6-3 to uphold the rest, with at least one concurrence on the 6-3 ruling.
Update 2012/06/25 - I'm not changing my prediction, but the speculation by commenters at BJ that Scalia and Alito blew their cool today because the PPACA will be upheld on Thursday seems reasonable. I hope they are right and I am wrong.
Sunday, June 24, 2012
Tuesday, June 5, 2012
One Hundred Mini-Presidents: June 2012 Edition
As is the case every two years, slight more than one-third of the Senate is up for re-election in 2012. Below is what I think (as of now, June 3) the outcome in November will be. Among the tossups, Obama's coattails will be enough to pull along McCaskill in Missouri, which has an AA population of about 15%. In Wisconsin, a re-energized left will turn out well enough to give Baldwin a victory. In Montana, Obama hate will work to defeat Tester, and the same emotion in Virginia will defeat Kaine. If Obama really drives turnout up, Dems will hold Virginia and Montana, and possibly take Indiana. OTOH, if Obama only wins narrowly, both Wisconsin and Missouri would fall to the Republicans, and possibly one or two others currently in the likely category.
Since the last version of this post, Snowe has retired. The likely winner in Maine is King, who will caucus with the Democrats while doing his best Lieberman imitation. Wingnutty candidates have won Republican primaries in Indiana and Nebraska, but the states are so red that the kooks will just reduce the margin some, not give Democrats real hope of winning.
Overall, the results below would be a lousy outcome for the left because there would be more than enough Conservadems to give Republicans effective control even if there are enough Democrats to retain nominal control (with the vote of the Veep). (Note: I'm not 100% certain how the Veep's vote works when assigning control, but AFAIK it would be like any other vote where there is a tie.) So, even if Obama wins (very likely) and the Democrats win back the House (unlikely but possible) the overall legislative environment will remain poor for most of the policies I'd like to see changed.
* Sanders is an independent who caucuses with the Democrats.
** King is an independent who will probably caucus with the Democrats if there is a tie; otherwise he'll side with the winner so as to get a little more clout for his state.
*** Mourdock defeated Lugar in the Republican primary, and will likely hold the seat for Republicans.
Since the last version of this post, Snowe has retired. The likely winner in Maine is King, who will caucus with the Democrats while doing his best Lieberman imitation. Wingnutty candidates have won Republican primaries in Indiana and Nebraska, but the states are so red that the kooks will just reduce the margin some, not give Democrats real hope of winning.
Overall, the results below would be a lousy outcome for the left because there would be more than enough Conservadems to give Republicans effective control even if there are enough Democrats to retain nominal control (with the vote of the Veep). (Note: I'm not 100% certain how the Veep's vote works when assigning control, but AFAIK it would be like any other vote where there is a tie.) So, even if Obama wins (very likely) and the Democrats win back the House (unlikely but possible) the overall legislative environment will remain poor for most of the policies I'd like to see changed.
| Democratic | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| 2011-2012 seats | 53 | 47 |
| Carryovers | 30 | 37 |
| Contested | 23 | 10 |
| Certain holds | California (Feinstein) | Arizona (open R to any R) |
| Connecticut (open D to Murphy) | Mississippi (Wicker) | |
| Delaware (Carper) | Tennessee (Corker) | |
| Hawaii (open D to Hirono) | Texas (open R to any R) | |
| Maryland (Cardin) | Utah (Hatch) | |
| Minnesota (Klobuchar) | Wyoming (Barasso) | |
| New Jersey (Menendez) | ||
| New York (Gillibrand) | ||
| Pennsylvania (Casey) | ||
| Rhode Island (Whitehouse) | ||
| Vermont (Sanders)* | ||
| Washington (Cantwell) | ||
| West Virginia (Manchin) | ||
| Likely holds | Florida (Nelson) | Indiana (Mourdock)*** |
| Michigan (Stabenow) | Nevada (Heller) | |
| New Mexico (open D to Heinrich) | ||
| Ohio (Brown) | ||
| Tossups | Missouri (McCaskill) | Montana (Tester to Rehberg) |
| Wisconsin (open D to Baldwin) | Virginia (open D to Allen) | |
| Likely flips | Massachusetts (Brown to Warren) | Nebraska (open D to any R) |
| Maine (open R to King)** | North Dakota (open D to any R) | |
| 2012 results | 21 | 12 |
| Swing | -2 | 2 |
| 2013-2014 seats | 51 | 49 |
* Sanders is an independent who caucuses with the Democrats.
** King is an independent who will probably caucus with the Democrats if there is a tie; otherwise he'll side with the winner so as to get a little more clout for his state.
*** Mourdock defeated Lugar in the Republican primary, and will likely hold the seat for Republicans.
Friday, April 27, 2012
Has the Jury Reached Its Verdict?
The hypothesis: austerity now will increase growth rates because businesses will invest because they will be confident that interest rates (or inflation, or something) will remain low.
The counter-hypothesis: austerity now will reduce growth rates (which can go below zero) because the government will spend less and tax more, which will cause businesses to be uncertain about having enough demand for their products, and thus to hold off on investments.
The test: austerity.
The results: Austerity has reduced growth because the government is spending less and taxing more, which has left business uncertain if they will have enough demand for their products and causing them to hold off on investments.
The verdict: suck it, austerians.
The counter-hypothesis: austerity now will reduce growth rates (which can go below zero) because the government will spend less and tax more, which will cause businesses to be uncertain about having enough demand for their products, and thus to hold off on investments.
The test: austerity.
The results: Austerity has reduced growth because the government is spending less and taxing more, which has left business uncertain if they will have enough demand for their products and causing them to hold off on investments.
The verdict: suck it, austerians.
Thursday, April 12, 2012
Grody to the Max
Today I spent the afternoon taking apart and reassembling my Kenmore-branded Whirlpool-made top-loading clothes washer (Series 80, model number 110.27822790). What I found was so disgusting it's against the Geneva Convention to post pictures of it. Well, actually, I didn't take pictures because I always forget to take pictures once I get my head into a project. But it was disgusting in there. Trust me on this. And because it was disgusting in there that means my clothes are disgusting, including all the ones I can't bleach. Grr.
Anyway, I strongly recommend to anyone that detects the slightest whiff of mold in their washing machine to at least take the cabinet off and look around. There are loads of instructional videos on the web that walk you through everything. It's not that hard to take the basket out on models like mine if you want to do the whole thing yourself, though it does require a special wrench. Otherwise, call a pro. Or if you're rich, buy a new washer.
Anyway, I strongly recommend to anyone that detects the slightest whiff of mold in their washing machine to at least take the cabinet off and look around. There are loads of instructional videos on the web that walk you through everything. It's not that hard to take the basket out on models like mine if you want to do the whole thing yourself, though it does require a special wrench. Otherwise, call a pro. Or if you're rich, buy a new washer.
Tuesday, March 20, 2012
Picture This and That: 2012 Exotic Creatures Edition
For reference, here's a chart of some of the exotic ILC cameras on the market (or announced and coming soon). I haven't included makers of medium-format and large-format view cameras because they are just kits of parts, essentially, rather than complete cameras that are more-or-less usable out of the box.
* - output JPEG pixel count; actual photosite count is 3 times greater for the Foveon X3 sensor
** - shipping later in the year
*** - the GXR system uses bundled lens and sensor modules (aka lensors)
| Uncommon | Unaffordable | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Camera category | Fujifilm | Ricoh | Sigma | Hasselblad | Leica | Mamiya Leaf | Pentax | Phase One |
| RF-style MSC no sensor or lens | - | GXR *** n/a $350 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Consumer DSLR / SLT / MSC body only | - | - | SD15 4.7MP * $1000 | - | - | - | - | - |
| Professional DSLR / SLT body only | - | - | SD1 15.3MP * $2300 | - | - | - | - | - |
| Rangefinder body only | X-Pro1 ** 16.0MP $1200 | - | - | - | M9 18.1MP $7000 | - | - | - |
| Fixed back medium format body only | - | - | - | - | S2 37.5MP $23000 | - | 645D 40.0MP $9000 | - |
| Removable back medium format no lens or back | - | - | - | - | - | 645DF n/a $6000 | - | 645DF n/a $6000 |
| Removable back medium format with back no lens | - | - | - | HD4-40 40.0MP $18000 | - | - | - | - |
| Removable back medium format with back and lens | - | - | - | HD4-31 31.7MP $14000 | - | DM-28MP 28.0MP $10000 | - | P 30+ 30MP $17000 |
* - output JPEG pixel count; actual photosite count is 3 times greater for the Foveon X3 sensor
** - shipping later in the year
*** - the GXR system uses bundled lens and sensor modules (aka lensors)
Monday, March 19, 2012
Picture This and That: March 2012 Comparison Chart Edition
Note: I post updated versions of this chart every six months or so. Check the photography category for the latest.
Spring announcement season is over for 2012, so here's a chart of what's available today (or announced and coming soon). The newcomers are the Nikon D4 and D800 digital single-lens reflex cameras, the Canon 5D Mk.III and 1D-X DSLRs, the Sony A57 single-lens translucent camera, the Olympus OM-D E-M5 mirrorless system camera, the Pentax K-01 MSC, and the Panasonic GX1 MSC. Fujifulm re-entered the interchangeable lens camera market when introduced the X-Pro1 rangefinder-style camera in January, but I'm not including it for now because the high price means it will likely remain a relatively rare camera. Sony has put the last of its DSLR models to bed, and both Olympus and Samsung have probably discontinued all models as well. Pentax announced the retirement of one camera, but it's still in stock. The new cameras from Canon and Nikon replace similar existing models.
A previous version of this chart is here, and a general background post can be found here. If you're a first-time ILC buyer, remember that cameras are just tools, and the raw pixel count is very likely not the most important feature to consider. It's also important to consider what gets attached to the front of the camera body: glass.
* - listed on manufacturer site but not in stores - probably discontinued
** - dual-lens kit
*** - still listed on manufacturer site and in stores, but officially discontinued
Update 2012-09-01: made minor edits
Spring announcement season is over for 2012, so here's a chart of what's available today (or announced and coming soon). The newcomers are the Nikon D4 and D800 digital single-lens reflex cameras, the Canon 5D Mk.III and 1D-X DSLRs, the Sony A57 single-lens translucent camera, the Olympus OM-D E-M5 mirrorless system camera, the Pentax K-01 MSC, and the Panasonic GX1 MSC. Fujifulm re-entered the interchangeable lens camera market when introduced the X-Pro1 rangefinder-style camera in January, but I'm not including it for now because the high price means it will likely remain a relatively rare camera. Sony has put the last of its DSLR models to bed, and both Olympus and Samsung have probably discontinued all models as well. Pentax announced the retirement of one camera, but it's still in stock. The new cameras from Canon and Nikon replace similar existing models.
A previous version of this chart is here, and a general background post can be found here. If you're a first-time ILC buyer, remember that cameras are just tools, and the raw pixel count is very likely not the most important feature to consider. It's also important to consider what gets attached to the front of the camera body: glass.
| Big 2 | Upstart | Little 4 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Camera category | Brand (2010 ILC market share) | Canon (45%) | Nikon (30%) | Sony (12%) | Pentax (?) | Olympus (5%) | Panasonic (?) | Samsung (?) |
| RF-style MSC price w/ zoom | Low-end | - | - | NEX-C3 16.2MP $600 | - | E-PM1 12.3MP $500 | - | NX100 * 14.6MP $425 |
| Mid-Range | - | J1 10.1MP $650 | NEX-5n 16.1M $700 | - | E-PL3 12.3MP $650 | DMC-GF3 12.1MP $550 | - | |
| High-end | - | V1 10.1MP $900 | NEX-7 24.1MP $1350 | Q 12.4MP $900 ** | E-P3 12.3MP $900 | DMC-GX1 16.1MP $800 | NX200 20.3MP $750 | |
| Consumer DSLR / SLT / MSC price w/ zoom | Beginner | 1100D/T3 12.2MP $500 | D3100 14.2MP $600 | SLT-A35 16.2MP $650 | K-r *** 12.4MP $600 | E-620 * 12.2MP $600 | - | NX10 * 14.6MP $700 |
| Mid-Range | 600D/T3i 18.0MP $800 | D5100 16.2MP $800 | SLT-A57 16.2MP $800 | K-01 16.3MP $999 ** | E-M5 16.1MP $1000 | DMC-G3 15.8MP $630 | - | |
| Enthusiast | 60D 18.0MP $1200 | D7000 16.2MP $1450 | SLT-A65 24.3MP $1000 | K-5 16.3MP $1350 | - | DMC-GH2 16.1MP $900 | - | |
| Professional DSLR / SLT price body only | Mid-size | 7D 18.0MP $1600 | D300s 12.3MP $1700 | SLT-A77 24.3MP $1400 | - | E-5 12.3MP $1600 | - | - |
| Mid-size full frame | 5D Mk.III 22.3MP $3500 | D800 36.3MP $3000 | - | - | - | - | - | |
| Flagship action | 1D X 18.1MP $6800 | D4 16.2MP $6000 | - | - | - | - | - | |
| Flagship studio | 1Ds Mk.III 21.1MP $7000 | D3x 24.5MP $8000 | - | - | - | - | - | |
* - listed on manufacturer site but not in stores - probably discontinued
** - dual-lens kit
*** - still listed on manufacturer site and in stores, but officially discontinued
Update 2012-09-01: made minor edits
Friday, January 27, 2012
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