Since the last version of this post, Snowe has retired. The likely winner in Maine is King, who will caucus with the Democrats while doing his best Lieberman imitation. Wingnutty candidates have won Republican primaries in Indiana and Nebraska, but the states are so red that the kooks will just reduce the margin some, not give Democrats real hope of winning.
Overall, the results below would be a lousy outcome for the left because there would be more than enough Conservadems to give Republicans effective control even if there are enough Democrats to retain nominal control (with the vote of the Veep). (Note: I'm not 100% certain how the Veep's vote works when assigning control, but AFAIK it would be like any other vote where there is a tie.) So, even if Obama wins (very likely) and the Democrats win back the House (unlikely but possible) the overall legislative environment will remain poor for most of the policies I'd like to see changed.
|Certain holds||California (Feinstein)||Arizona (open R to any R)|
|Connecticut (open D to Murphy)||Mississippi (Wicker)|
|Delaware (Carper)||Tennessee (Corker)|
|Hawaii (open D to Hirono)||Texas (open R to any R)|
|Maryland (Cardin)||Utah (Hatch)|
|Minnesota (Klobuchar)||Wyoming (Barasso)|
|New Jersey (Menendez)|
|New York (Gillibrand)|
|Rhode Island (Whitehouse)|
|West Virginia (Manchin)|
|Likely holds||Florida (Nelson)||Indiana (Mourdock)***|
|Michigan (Stabenow)||Nevada (Heller)|
|New Mexico (open D to Heinrich)|
|Tossups||Missouri (McCaskill)||Montana (Tester to Rehberg)|
|Wisconsin (open D to Baldwin)||Virginia (open D to Allen)|
|Likely flips||Massachusetts (Brown to Warren)||Nebraska (open D to any R)|
|Maine (open R to King)**||North Dakota (open D to any R)|
* Sanders is an independent who caucuses with the Democrats.
** King is an independent who will probably caucus with the Democrats if there is a tie; otherwise he'll side with the winner so as to get a little more clout for his state.
*** Mourdock defeated Lugar in the Republican primary, and will likely hold the seat for Republicans.