Overall, the results below would be a lousy outcome for the left because there would be more than enough Conservadems to give Republicans effective control even if there are enough Democrats to retain nominal control (with the vote of the Veep). (Note: I'm not 100% certain how the Veep's vote works when assigning control, but AFAIK it would be like any other vote where there is a tie.) So, even if Obama wins (very likely) and the Democrats win back the House (unlikely but possible) the overall legislative environment will remain poor for most of the policies I'd like to see changed.
| Democratic | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| Carryovers | 30 | 37 |
| Contested | 23 | 10 |
| Certain holds | California (Feinstein) | Arizona (open R to any R) |
| Connecticut (open D to Murphy) | Indiana (Lugar) | |
| Delaware (Carper) | Mississippi (Wicker) | |
| Hawaii (open D to Case/Hirono) | Tennessee (Corker) | |
| Maryland (Cardin) | Texas (open R to any R) | |
| Minnesota (Klobuchar) | Utah (Hatch) | |
| New Jersey (Menendez) | Wyoming (Barasso) | |
| New York (Gillibrand) | ||
| Rhode Island (Whitehouse) | ||
| Vermont (Sanders) | ||
| Washington (Cantwell) | ||
| West Virginia (Manchin) | ||
| Likely holds | Florida (Nelson) | Maine (Snowe) |
| Michigan (Stabenow) | ||
| New Mexico (open D to Heinrich) | ||
| Ohio (Brown) | ||
| Pennsylvania (Casey) | ||
| Tossups | Missouri (McCaskill) | Montana (Tester to Rehberg) |
| Wisconsin (open D to Baldwin) | Nevada (Heller) | |
| Likely flips | Massachusetts (Brown to Warren) | Nebraska (open D to any R) |
| North Dakota (open D to any R) | ||
| Virginia (open D to Allen) | ||
| 2012 results | 20 | 13 |
| Swing | -3 | 3 |
| 2013-2014 seats | 50 | 50 |
No comments:
Post a Comment