Picture This and That: Zooming the Bridges October 2012 Edition

Before the mirrorless rage started, the big new thing was big zoom bridge cameras.  Although the excitement has faded, the superzooms still out there, and a number of them are pretty good.  They'll never match interchangeable lens cameras for image quality, but they're more than adequate for anyone taking snapshots, and they offer buyers a highly flexible camera for a relatively low price.

I've looked at the latest reviews, along with a lot of older comparisons, and found that the Canon Powershot SX_0 IS series and the Pansonic DMC-FZ series have been battling for the top of the heap since the mid-2000s.  The DMC-FZ100 was a bit of dud, though, so watch out for that one if you're looking into the used market.  I would also be wary of the SX50 if you're going to be shooting indoors often.  The 50x (1200 / 24 = 50) zoom might seem like it would be great to have, but the price is a pretty slow (small maximum aperture) lens.  I think Canon should have introduced a new series for such an extreme zoom, and then done a more conservative iteration of the SX40.  The DMC-FZ200 takes the opposite approach - it has a much less aggressive telephoto specification, but maintains a relatively fast f/2.8 aperture through the entire zoom range.  Both Sony and Nikon offer a model with built-in GPS, but in the Nikon the price is a rather low battery life. The other brands' products are entirely meh.  I really don't understand Fujifilm's strategy, which seems to be spray out a ton of mediocre models plus an occasional very expensive oddball (which is still expensive when discounted by $200 from list).  And why anyone would buy a Leica-branded Panasonic camera baffles me, too, though apparently buyers at least get better software and warranties from Leica than from Panasonic.

In the chart below, I've included the previous five years of cameras to show how the category has advanced in terms of zoom and megapixels.  I've also included the current (as of mid-October 2012) street price for cameras released in the past two years.  The cameras are arranged more-or-less in series, except for Fujifilm and Kodak models, which aren't worth looking at anyway.

Brand \ Year	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
Canon						SX500 IS 16.0MP # 24-720mm $300
	S5 IS 8.0MP 36-432mm	SX1 / SX10 IS 10.0MP 28-560mm	SX20 IS 12.1MP 28-560mm	SX30 IS 14.1MP 24-840mm	SX40 HS 12.1MP 24-840mm $315	SX50 HS 12.1MP 24-1200mm $480
Casio		EX-FH20 9.1MP 26-520mm	EX-FH25 10.1MP 26-520mm
		Pro EX-F1 6.0MP 36-432mm ***
Fujifilm						SL240 14.0MP 24-576mm n/a US?
	S5700 Zoom 7.1MP 38-380mm	S2000HD 10.0MP 28-414mm	S1500 10.0MP 33-396mm	S1600 12.2MP 28-420mm		SL300 14.0MP 24-720mm $190
		S1000fd 10.0MP 33-396mm		S1800 12.2MP 28-504mm	S2950 14.0MP 28-504mm $170
				S2500HD 12.2MP 28-504mm	S3200 14.0MP 24-576mm $190	S4200 14.0MP 24-576mm $160
	S8000fd 8.0MP 27-486mm	S8100fd 10.0MP 27-486mm		S2800HD 14.0MP 28-504mm	S4000 14.0MP 24-720mm $160	S4500 14.0MP 24-720mm $170
	IS-1 9.1MP 28-300mm		S200EXR 12.0MP 31-436mm	HS10 10.3MP 24-720mm	HS20EXR 16.0MP 24-720mm $500	HS30EXR 14.0MP 24-720mm $320
		S100fs 11.1MP 28-400mm			X-S1 12.0MP 24-624mm $600
Kodak *	Z712 IS 7.1MP 36-423mm	Z812 IS 8.1MP 36-432mm	Z980 12.0MP 26-624mm	Z981 14.0MP 26-676mm	Z990 12.0MP 28-840mm $200
		Z1012 IS 10.0MP 33-396mm			Z5010 14.0MP 25-525mm $140	Z5120 16.0MP 26-676mm $180
		Z1015 IS 10.0MP 28-420mm
Leica				V-Lux 2 (Pansonic DMC-FZ100)	V-Lux 3 (Pansonic DMC-FZ150) $629	V-Lux 4 (Pansonic DMC-FZ200) n/a
Nikon			L100 10.1MP # 28-420mm	L110 12.2MP # 28-420mm	L120 14.1MP # 25-525mm $210	L810 16.0MP # 23-585mm $200
		P80 10.1MP 27-486mm	P90 12.1MP 26-624mm	P100 10.3MP 26-678mm	P500 12.0MP 23-810mm $320	P510 16.0MP ** 24-1000mm $400
Olympus	SP-550UZ 7.1MP 28-504mm	SP-565UZ 10.0MP 26-520mm	SP-590UZ 12.0MP 26-676mm	SP-600UZ 12.0MP # 28-420mm	SP-610UZ 14.0MP # 28-616mm $190	SP-620UZ 16.0MP # 25-525mm $200
	SP-560UZ 8.0MP 27-486mm	SP-570UZ 10.0MP 26-520mm		SP-800UZ 14.0MP # 28-840mm	SP-810UZ 14.0MP # 24-864mm $250	SP-820UZ 14.0MP # 22-896mm $330
Panasonic						DMC-LZ20 16.1MP # 25-525mm $250
	DMC-FZ18 8.0MP 28-504mm	DMC-FZ28 10.1MP 27-486mm	DMC-FZ35 12.1MP 27-486mm	DMC-FZ40 14.1MP 25-600mm	DMC-FZ47 12.1MP 25-600mm $260	DMC-FZ60 16.1MP 25-600mm $349
				DMC-FZ100 14.1MP 25-600mm	DMC-FZ150 12.1MP 25-600mm $480	DMC-FZ200 12.1MP 25-600mm $550
Pentax			X70 12.0MP 26-624mm	X90 12.0MP 26-676mm		X-5 16.0MP 22-580mm $280
Samsung			HZ25W 12.5MP 26-624mm	HZ50W 13.8MP 26-676mm		WB100 16.2MP 22-580mm $230
Sony		DSC-H3 8.1MP 38-380mm
	DSC-H7 8.0MP 31-465mm	DSC-H10 8.1MP 38-380mm
	DSC-H9 8.0MP 31-465mm	DSC-H50 9.1MP 31-465mm	DSC-HX1 9.1MP 28-560mm		DSC-HX100V 16.2MP ** 27-810mm $370	DSC-HX200V 18.2MP ** 27-810mm $480

# - no electronic viewfinder (EVF).
* - Kodak is kaput, so don't expect support if you buy one.
** - built-in GPS.
*** - due to its unique high-speed video features, the Casio Pro EX-F1 still sells for over $1000 used.

Note: no consideration has been taken, given, or otherwise discussed wrt. this review.  However, camera manufacturers should feel free to shower me with products at their earliest convenience.

E-Reading is Fundamental: October 2012 Edition

I'm about to take a plunge into the e-book pool, and here's my research into e-Ink-based e-readers.  I have decided to go with an e-Ink device for now, because they are easier to read than LCD-based tablets such as the iPad, Kindle Fire, and Nook HD, as well as being cheaper.  They are, of course, more limited.  Tablets are general purpose computers, and are quite flexible, though without adding accessories they are not nearly as useful as even a low-end laptop.  OTOH, e-readers are appliances, and do one thing well, though all of the readers I looked at have some amount of secondary functionality.

Right now the Kobo Glo seems to be the best all-around device.  It is top-lit (as opposed to back-lit, as with an LCD-based device), it is tied for the highest resolution in the 6-inch class of readers (the standard size), and it is part of the most open "ecosystem."  It has a decent web browser and decent PDF support.  (Like most people, I loath PDFs, but they are unavoidable at this point.)  However, the Kobo isn't available in the US yet, though it should be shortly.  The Kindle Paperwhite probably has a better screen, but it is completely tied to Amazon's store, and there is a shipping delay of almost a month right now due to demand.  The Nook Simple Touch Glow is available today (and in stores for pre-purchase evaluation), but it has a lower resolution screen which, according to reports on the internet, seems to be quite susceptible to damage from things being dropped on it.  It also has the worst PDF support and no web browser.

The first chart after the break contains mainstream models from each of the three best vendors - Amazon, Barnes and Noble, and Kobo.  The 6" readers are all about the same size and weight, though the side bezels on the Nook models are slightly wider, which would be good for anyone who plans to hold it with one hand.  The second chart contains some other models Amazon and Kobo, plus two models from Icarus that seem nice, though they are not really available in the US.  The latter may be of interest to someone wants their extra features. I have not included Sony, which used to be a major player, because it seems to be on its way out of the market, having reduced the number of models it offers to one.

Update 2012/10/12: Some early customer reports on the Paperwhite indicate that the screen isn't so great after all.  I think they may be over-reacting to Amazon's (false) promises of perfection, as the unevenness is at the extreme bottom.  But people who are looking for the absolute best screen should probably wait until more reports on the KPW come in, and until customers actually receive the Kobo Glo.

Note: no consideration has been taken, given, or otherwise discussed wrt. this review.  However, e-reader makers should feel free to shower me with products at their earliest convenience.

435 Creepy Critters: October 2012 Edition

As is the case every two years, every Representative in the House is up for re-election in 2012.  Below is what I think (as of now, September 28) the outcome in November will be.  I have been somewhat optimistic in my analysis, but even if it is accurate, the Democrats will fall short, leaving the Republicans with a slim majority and an even more radical caucus.  That situation will not be good for legislation I think should be passed, as the Republicans will double down on obstructionism, hoping to duplicate the 2010 election in 2014.  However, momentum seems to be with the Democrats right now, so the final count could be better than what I expect.

I'm not going to break out individual races for the House because I just don't have the patience to document the 80 or so races that are somewhat competitive, or better.  At a higher level, the states to watch are Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, and New York.  Those 10 states have the most competitive races.  States definitely not to watch are Alabama, Alaska, Delaware, Hawaii, Idaho, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Vermont, and Wyoming.  There no competitive races in those 18 states.  The remaining 22 have either only 1 competitive race, or races that are only somewhat competitive.

Because 2012 is a redistricting year, I have included a column for the change in the number of seats each state holds.  I have also broken the "swing" into two separate columns because, with redistricting, one party's gains in a state doesn't always equal the other party's losses.

	2011-12 Democratic Seats	2011-12 Republican Seats	Change in Seats	Comp. Races	2013-14 Democratic Seats	2013-14 Republican Seats	Net Democratic Change	Net Republican Change
Alabama	1	6			1	6
Alaska	0	1			0	1
Arizona	3	5	1	3	5	4	2	-1
Arkansas	1	3			0	4	-1	1
California	34	19		11	39	14	5	-5
Colorado	3	4		3	4	3	1	-1
Connecticut	5	0		1	5	0
Delaware	1	0			1	0
Florida	6	19	2	6	11	16	5	-3
Georgia	5	8	1	1	4	10	-1	2
Hawaii	2	0			2	0
Idaho	0	2			0	2
Illinois	8	11	-1	6	13	5	5	-6
Indiana	3	6			2	7	-1	1
Iowa	3	2	-1	4	3	1		-1
Kansas	0	4			0	4
Kentucky	2	4		1	2	4
Louisiana	1	6	-1		1	5		-1
Maine	2	0		1	2	0
Maryland	6	2		1	7	1	1	-1
Massachusetts	10	0	-1	1	9	0	-1
Michigan	6	9	-1	3	6	8		-1
Minnesota	4	4		2	5	3	1	-1
Mississippi	1	3			1	3
Missouri	3	6	-1		2	6	-1
Montana	0	1		1	0	1
Nebraska	0	3			0	3
Nevada	1	2	1	2	3	1	2	-1
New Hampshire	0	2		2	2	0	2	-2
New Jersey	7	6	-1	1	6	6	-1
New Mexico	2	1		1	2	1
New York	21	8	-2	8	23	4	2	-4
North Carolina	7	6		3	3	10	-4	4
North Dakota	0	1			0	1
Ohio	5	13	-2		6	10	1	-3
Oklahoma	1	4			0	5	-1	1
Oregon	4	1			4	1
Pennsylvania	7	12	-1	4	6	12	-1
Rhode Island	2	0		1	2	0
South Carolina	1	5	1		1	6		1
South Dakota	0	1			0	1
Tennessee	2	7			2	7
Texas	9	23	4	2	12	24	3	1
Utah	1	2	1	1	1	3		1
Vermont	1	0			1	0
Virginia	3	8		1	3	8
Washington	5	4	1	2	6	4	1
West Virginia	1	2		1	1	2
Wisconsin	3	5		2	4	4	1	-1
Wyoming	0	1			0	1
Totals	193	242	0		213	222	20	-20

Romney's Returns Rumors

There are so many reasons for Romney not to release his federal income tax returns.  Choose your speculation from the following:

1. He participated in the 2009 IRS Swiss tax haven amnesty.
2. He paid zero or negative taxes in one or more years.
3. He voted illegally in 2010.
4. He lied on legally binding documents about his status at Bain between 1999 and 2002.
5. He has various issues related to tithing (not 10% or more than his taxes).
6. He built his $100 million IRA using dubious means. (This may not be detailed in the returns, though.)
7. He gave $100 million to his sons using dubious means
8. He's worth a heck of a lot more than $250 million.
9. He made lots of now-embarrassing donations earlier in his career.
10. He committed outright fraud. (This is the least likely, IMHO, as his companies have shown considerable skill at legally "evading" taxes.)
11. He’s Mitt Fucking Romney, and he’s told all you people need to know.
12. All of the above

Presidential Candidate Tax Returns

From what I can tell, below are the years for which various presidential candidates and presidents have released their tax returns. Bold checks are for returns released as candidates, "e" is for estimate, "s" is for summary, and "p" is for partial.  Click to embiggen.

Activists'R'USSC

Update 2012/07/13 - Still happy I was wrong, wrong, wrong about this.

I'm not a SCOTUS watcher, so any prediction I make on the PPACA ruling due this week is a WAG.  Nonetheless, based on the political nature of the case, rulings handed down last week, and the general trend of conservative actions over the past decade, I think the ruling will come down as follows: 5-4 to overturn the mandate, 5-4 to overturn the Medicaid expansion, and 6-3 to uphold the rest, with at least one concurrence on the 6-3 ruling.

Update 2012/06/25 - I'm not changing my prediction, but the speculation by commenters at BJ that Scalia and Alito blew their cool today because the PPACA will be upheld on Thursday seems reasonable. I hope they are right and I am wrong.

One Hundred Mini-Presidents: June 2012 Edition

As is the case every two years, slight more than one-third of the Senate is up for re-election in 2012.  Below is what I think (as of now, June 3) the outcome in November will be.  Among the tossups, Obama's coattails will be enough to pull along McCaskill in Missouri, which has an AA population of about 15%.  In Wisconsin, a re-energized left will turn out well enough to give Baldwin a victory.  In Montana, Obama hate will work to defeat Tester, and the same emotion in Virginia will defeat Kaine.  If Obama really drives turnout up, Dems will hold Virginia and Montana, and possibly take Indiana.  OTOH, if Obama only wins narrowly, both Wisconsin and Missouri would fall to the Republicans, and possibly one or two others currently in the likely category.

Since the last version of this post, Snowe has retired.  The likely winner in Maine is King, who will caucus with the Democrats while doing his best Lieberman imitation.  Wingnutty candidates have won Republican primaries in Indiana and Nebraska, but the states are so red that the kooks will just reduce the margin some, not give Democrats real hope of winning.

Overall, the results below would be a lousy outcome for the left because there would be more than enough Conservadems to give Republicans effective control even if there are enough Democrats to retain nominal control (with the vote of the Veep).  (Note: I'm not 100% certain how the Veep's vote works when assigning control, but AFAIK it would be like any other vote where there is a tie.)  So, even if Obama wins (very likely) and the Democrats win back the House (unlikely but possible) the overall legislative environment will remain poor for most of the policies I'd like to see changed.

	Democratic	Republican
2011-2012 seats	53	47
Carryovers	30	37
Contested	23	10
Certain holds	California (Feinstein)	Arizona (open R to any R)
	Connecticut (open D to Murphy)	Mississippi (Wicker)
	Delaware (Carper)	Tennessee (Corker)
	Hawaii (open D to Hirono)	Texas (open R to any R)
	Maryland (Cardin)	Utah (Hatch)
	Minnesota (Klobuchar)	Wyoming (Barasso)
	New Jersey (Menendez)
	New York (Gillibrand)
	Pennsylvania (Casey)
	Rhode Island (Whitehouse)
	Vermont (Sanders)*
	Washington (Cantwell)
	West Virginia (Manchin)
Likely holds	Florida (Nelson)	Indiana (Mourdock)***
	Michigan (Stabenow)	Nevada (Heller)
	New Mexico (open D to Heinrich)
	Ohio (Brown)
Tossups	Missouri (McCaskill)	Montana (Tester to Rehberg)
	Wisconsin (open D to Baldwin)	Virginia (open D to Allen)
Likely flips	Massachusetts (Brown to Warren)	Nebraska (open D to any R)
	Maine (open R to King)**	North Dakota (open D to any R)
2012 results	21	12
Swing	-2	2
2013-2014 seats	51	49

* Sanders is an independent who caucuses with the Democrats.
** King is an independent who will probably caucus with the Democrats if there is a tie; otherwise he'll side with the winner so as to get a little more clout for his state.
*** Mourdock defeated Lugar in the Republican primary, and will likely hold the seat for Republicans.