Friday, September 28, 2012

435 Creepy Critters: October 2012 Edition

As is the case every two years, every Representative in the House is up for re-election in 2012.  Below is what I think (as of now, September 28) the outcome in November will be.  I have been somewhat optimistic in my analysis, but even if it is accurate, the Democrats will fall short, leaving the Republicans with a slim majority and an even more radical caucus.  That situation will not be good for legislation I think should be passed, as the Republicans will double down on obstructionism, hoping to duplicate the 2010 election in 2014.  However, momentum seems to be with the Democrats right now, so the final count could be better than what I expect.

I'm not going to break out individual races for the House because I just don't have the patience to document the 80 or so races that are somewhat competitive, or better.  At a higher level, the states to watch are Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, and New York.  Those 10 states have the most competitive races.  States definitely not to watch are Alabama, Alaska, Delaware, Hawaii, Idaho, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Vermont, and Wyoming.  There no competitive races in those 18 states.  The remaining 22 have either only 1 competitive race, or races that are only somewhat competitive.

Because 2012 is a redistricting year, I have included a column for the change in the number of seats each state holds.  I have also broken the "swing" into two separate columns because, with redistricting, one party's gains in a state doesn't always equal the other party's losses.


2011-12
Democratic
Seats
2011-12
Republican
Seats
Change
in Seats
Comp.
Races
2013-14
Democratic
Seats
2013-14
Republican
Seats
Net
Democratic
Change
Net
Republican
Change
Alabama1616
Alaska0101
Arizona3513542-1
Arkansas1304-11
California34191139145-5
Colorado343431-1
Connecticut50150
Delaware1010
Florida6192611165-3
Georgia5811410-12
Hawaii2020
Idaho0202
Illinois811-161355-6
Indiana3627-11
Iowa32-1431-1
Kansas0404
Kentucky24124
Louisiana16-115-1
Maine20120
Maryland621711-1
Massachusetts100-1190-1
Michigan69-1368-1
Minnesota442531-1
Mississippi1313
Missouri36-126-1
Montana01101
Nebraska0303
Nevada1212312-1
New Hampshire022202-2
New Jersey76-1166-1
New Mexico21121
New York218-282342-4
North Carolina763310-44
North Dakota0101
Ohio513-26101-3
Oklahoma1405-11
Oregon4141
Pennsylvania712-14612-1
Rhode Island20120
South Carolina151161
South Dakota0101
Tennessee2727
Texas92342122431
Utah1211131
Vermont1010
Virginia38138
Washington5412641
West Virginia12112
Wisconsin352441-1
Wyoming0101
Totals193242021322220-20

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