435 Creepy Critters: October 2012 Edition

As is the case every two years, every Representative in the House is up for re-election in 2012.  Below is what I think (as of now, September 28) the outcome in November will be.  I have been somewhat optimistic in my analysis, but even if it is accurate, the Democrats will fall short, leaving the Republicans with a slim majority and an even more radical caucus.  That situation will not be good for legislation I think should be passed, as the Republicans will double down on obstructionism, hoping to duplicate the 2010 election in 2014.  However, momentum seems to be with the Democrats right now, so the final count could be better than what I expect.

I'm not going to break out individual races for the House because I just don't have the patience to document the 80 or so races that are somewhat competitive, or better.  At a higher level, the states to watch are Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, and New York.  Those 10 states have the most competitive races.  States definitely not to watch are Alabama, Alaska, Delaware, Hawaii, Idaho, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Vermont, and Wyoming.  There no competitive races in those 18 states.  The remaining 22 have either only 1 competitive race, or races that are only somewhat competitive.

Because 2012 is a redistricting year, I have included a column for the change in the number of seats each state holds.  I have also broken the "swing" into two separate columns because, with redistricting, one party's gains in a state doesn't always equal the other party's losses.

	2011-12 Democratic Seats	2011-12 Republican Seats	Change in Seats	Comp. Races	2013-14 Democratic Seats	2013-14 Republican Seats	Net Democratic Change	Net Republican Change
Alabama	1	6			1	6
Alaska	0	1			0	1
Arizona	3	5	1	3	5	4	2	-1
Arkansas	1	3			0	4	-1	1
California	34	19		11	39	14	5	-5
Colorado	3	4		3	4	3	1	-1
Connecticut	5	0		1	5	0
Delaware	1	0			1	0
Florida	6	19	2	6	11	16	5	-3
Georgia	5	8	1	1	4	10	-1	2
Hawaii	2	0			2	0
Idaho	0	2			0	2
Illinois	8	11	-1	6	13	5	5	-6
Indiana	3	6			2	7	-1	1
Iowa	3	2	-1	4	3	1		-1
Kansas	0	4			0	4
Kentucky	2	4		1	2	4
Louisiana	1	6	-1		1	5		-1
Maine	2	0		1	2	0
Maryland	6	2		1	7	1	1	-1
Massachusetts	10	0	-1	1	9	0	-1
Michigan	6	9	-1	3	6	8		-1
Minnesota	4	4		2	5	3	1	-1
Mississippi	1	3			1	3
Missouri	3	6	-1		2	6	-1
Montana	0	1		1	0	1
Nebraska	0	3			0	3
Nevada	1	2	1	2	3	1	2	-1
New Hampshire	0	2		2	2	0	2	-2
New Jersey	7	6	-1	1	6	6	-1
New Mexico	2	1		1	2	1
New York	21	8	-2	8	23	4	2	-4
North Carolina	7	6		3	3	10	-4	4
North Dakota	0	1			0	1
Ohio	5	13	-2		6	10	1	-3
Oklahoma	1	4			0	5	-1	1
Oregon	4	1			4	1
Pennsylvania	7	12	-1	4	6	12	-1
Rhode Island	2	0		1	2	0
South Carolina	1	5	1		1	6		1
South Dakota	0	1			0	1
Tennessee	2	7			2	7
Texas	9	23	4	2	12	24	3	1
Utah	1	2	1	1	1	3		1
Vermont	1	0			1	0
Virginia	3	8		1	3	8
Washington	5	4	1	2	6	4	1
West Virginia	1	2		1	1	2
Wisconsin	3	5		2	4	4	1	-1
Wyoming	0	1			0	1
Totals	193	242	0		213	222	20	-20