- Close, but no banana. The final report in 2011 was for November, when the rate fell to 8.6%. I could try to wiggle out by pointing to a larger-than-average movement in the denominator for November, but the truth is that the employment situation is getting better, albeit very slowly. The E2P ratio did stay close to what I predicted, with 58.7% being reported in November.
- Correct. There was a small blip upwards in the middle of the year, but prices fell overall.
- Correct. Effective rates started the year at 0.13% and ended the year at 0.07%.
- Correct. I didn't specify a range, but the 2.5% increase seen over the year isn't that significant.
The change in the yuan dollar rate was about 1%, so I was right about that, too.Update 2012.03.17 - I wasn't right about the yuan. It increased by 4.5% vs. the dollar, not 1%. That's not insignificant, but in all likelihood a freely-floating yuan would be 4 or 5 to the dollar. So it has a way to go.
- Close, but no banana. I forget which benchmark I was thinking of, but both the WTI Cushing and spot prices ended up below $100/bbl. Brent, which is for a light sweet crude, ended at $107, but it always commands a premium to WTI.
- Correct. The euro still exists, and no country has left yet.
- Wrong, wrong, wrong. US-Cuba relations are about the same as they've been since the end of the Cold War. No surprise, really, as I threw this prediction out just for the heck of it.
- Correct. There really hasn't been much of a change in Afghanistan AFAIK, except that relations with Pakistan have gotten a lot worse.
- Depends on your perspective. The Republicans relented, but they did extract some concessions. The most prominent of them, the "Super Committee" was a complete bust, but there are automatic spending cuts scheduled in the 2013 budget. They may very well not survive the budget process. I was hoping for a completely clean victory by the Democrats, but the Republicans were even crazier than I expected.
Monday, January 2, 2012
Predictions About the Future: 2011 Report Card
So how did I do?