Saturday, June 13, 2009

Drop 'til You Shop: April 2009 Edition

The drop in retail sales actually stopped a few months back, but the levels remain low.

Entirely unsurprising is the news that autos and auto parts have fallen the most in percentage terms. They will spring back some, adding $5B or $10B back to the total. This would put total retail sales at about $350B per month, down about $25B from the peak, which adds up to an annual decline of $300B.

So where could the other $700B of the $1T reduction in consumption come from? Either from a further decline in retail sales, or a fall in consumption of services.

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