Some graphs of ETFs and related indexes.
TBT is supposed to perform 2x inverse of TLT (for which I have inverted the data). However, it clearly doesn't. Neither track the rate indexes well. (NB: The rate indexes may be inappropriate, but I used them because I don't know of a price index to use.)
USO is supposed to follow WTI spot (after expenses and fees). Again, there's a big gap. But despite a lot of griping about USO across the tubes, it is performing better than the other ETFs I examined.
A follow-on question would be how are similar MUFs performing in comparison.