Thursday, November 1, 2012

Odds of Sods: November 2012 Edition

In the three preceding post I have made my predictions for the outcomes of the contests for the Presidency, the Senate, and the House of Representatives.  Below is how I see the cycle as a whole.  The second best outcome, which preserves the status quo, is also the most likely.  The very best outcome - full Democratic control - is the third most likely.  Unfortunately, the sixth best (or third worst) outcome is the second most likely.  The chances of the other outcomes are very low at this point, as it would mean that people predicted two or more of the three contests wrong.  Modern polling is reasonably good, and there are enough of them for the Presidency and Senate that the degree of confidence for individual contests is fairly high.  The House is a little more dicey, as there aren't as many polls for individual races.  In fact, most professional poll crunchers avoid the House altogether, and others look just at the overall picture.  The redistricting process creates some additional uncertainty in the meaning of the generic congressional ballot, but I still think it indicates moderate gains for the Democrats, if not as many as I'd like.  But, overall, I think Democrats should be moderately pleased at the end of next Tuesday night.

OutcomeLegislative OutlookImplication for CountyOdds of Happening
DemocratsRepublicans(1 = best/highest, 8 = lowest/worst)
President, Senate, House-Slow advance13
President, SenateHouseNeutral21
President, HouseSenateNeutral36
PresidentSenate, HouseSlow retreat44
Senate, HousePresidentFast retreat57
SenatePresident, HouseFast retreat62
HousePresident, SenateFast retreat78
-President, Senate, HouseThe Apocalypse85

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