One Office to Herd Them All: November 2012 Edition

As is the case every four years, the grand prize for the election cycle is the office of the President of the United States of America.  This cycle pits the Democratic incumbent, Barack Obama, against the Republican challenger, Willard Romney.  The key to understanding the presidential race is that it is 51 state races, not one national race.  Given the electoral college system, which I really don't like, I believe (as of now, November 1st) that Obama will be the winner on November 6, with 290 electoral votes to 248 for Romney.  The best outcome Obama is likely to get is 332 to 206, and the worst is 265 to 273.  270 EVs is the threshold for winning.  269 EVs for each would send the election to the House of Representatives and the end of the world as we know it.  (I'm kidding about that last bit.  I hope.)  In reality, the chances of Obama losing in Nevada are less than 15%, so it would have to be a very bad night for the Democrats if Obama were to receive less than 271 EVs.  A lot of current polling gives Obama a victory in Virginia, but I think he will just barely lose.  Winning that state would put his EV total over 300, which doesn't mean much by itself, but people tend to fixate on nice, round numbers.

I'm not going to analyze the popular vote because it's complicated and it doesn't matter, strictly speaking.  It does matter a lot for legitimacy purposes, but only for Obama.  My guess is that the result will be about 50-49-1% in favor of the incumbent, which will make him a legitimate victor in the minds of Democrats and true swing voters, and would mostly shut the media up.  If Obama loses the popular vote but wins the electoral college, the press will insist that he bow to every Republican whim, which of course they did not do for Bush the Lesser.  That would be both entirely unfair and entirely unsurprising, because media has two separate standards for the two parties.

On election night, the first state to watch for will be Virginia, where polls close at 7PM EST.  If Obama takes that state, he'll almost certainly have won the election (given the near-certainty of Obama winning the 265 EVS in the higher confidence categories).  The networks may also call Florida at 7PM EST, but most likely they will wait until 8PM EST when polls in the panhandle close.  Florida is another state that would basically guarantee that Obama was victorious.  If Obama loses in both of those states, he will need to win Colorado, Iowa, or Nevada.  Those states close their polls at 9PM EST, 10PM EST, and 10PM EST respectively.  New Hampshire polls will close at 8PM EST, but by itself the state's 4 EVs cannot give Obama the win when added to his baseline of 265.  I think we'll have to wait until after 9 PM to see the good guy win.

	Certain Dem.	Likely Dem.	Lean Dem.	Lean Rep.	Likely Rep.	Certain Rep.
Alabama						9
Alaska						3
Arizona					11
Arkansas						6
California	55
Colorado			9
Connecticut	7
Delaware	3
District of Columbia	3
Florida				29
Georgia						16
Hawaii	4
Idaho						4
Illinois	20
Indiana					11
Iowa			6
Kansas						6
Kentucky						8
Louisiana						8
Maine *	4
Maryland	10
Massachusetts	11
Michigan	16
Minnesota	10
Mississippi						6
Missouri						10
Montana						3
Nebraska *						5
Nevada			6
New Hampshire			4
New Jersey	14
New Mexico	5
New York	29
North Carolina					15
North Dakota						3
Ohio		18
Oklahoma						7
Oregon	7
Pennsylvania		20
Rhode Island	4
South Carolina						9
South Dakota						3
Tennessee						11
Texas						38
Utah						6
Vermont	3
Virginia				13
Washington	12
West Virginia						5
Wisconsin		10
Wyoming						3
Subtotals	217	48	25	42	37	169
Baseline total		265			206
Grand Total	Obama		290	248		Romney

* - By state law, both Maine and Nebraska can split their electoral votes, but that won't happen in 2012.