Saturday, July 10, 2021

Planning: Square or Rectangular Blocks

NB: I believe this topic has been discussed much better many times elsewhere on the net and in print.  I am writing simply to clarify my own thoughts.

In my previous post on planning, I looked briefly at the issue of block size.  Before I pursue that question further, I want to examine why many urban street networks have rectangular blocks, often in a rough 2:1 ratio of length to depth.  Of the grids I mentioned before, Manhattan, the Little Village neighborhood of Chicago, Stockholm, and Turin have blocks that are mostly rectangular.  Square blocks dominate Barcelona, Madrid, Portland, and downtown Chicago.  Many more examples of both tendencies abound.

So if, as I explained in the previous post, smaller block sizes contribute to the quality of walkability, why would planners choose rectangular blocks?  I believe the main driver is infrastructure efficiency, or taxability.  Calculations illustrate the problem quickly.


Square Mildly Rectangular Severely Rectangular Extremely Rectangular Large Square
Gross Length 300 600 900 1200 600
Gross Depth 300 300 300 300 600
ROW width 60 60 60 60 60
Net Length 240 540 840 1140 540
Net Depth 240 240 240 240 540
Taxable area 64.0% 72.0% 74.7% 76.0% 81.0%
Increase over previous (baseline for large square)
n/a 12.5% 3.7% 1.8% 26.6%

The increase in the taxable area is most likely why planners choose to make at least part of planned cities rectangular grids instead of Cartesian grids.  Most planners have used a ratio close to the 2:1 proportions shown in the second column, because the returns on higher differences in dimensions decrease.  In addition, if the depth of a rectangular block remains reasonable (note that I did not specify units in the table), unlike with a larger, less walkable square block, lots remain useful without alley access, and can be developed into fee-simple properties up to moderate densities.  The combination of taxability, walkability, and practicality is why so many cities have rectangular grids for at least part of their street network.  However, there are trade-offs in any decision, so planners should continue to respond to local conditions when laying out a particular block or set of blocks.

Friday, July 9, 2021

Planning: Ideal Block Size

NB: I believe this topic has been discussed much better many times elsewhere on the net and in print.  I am writing simply to clarify my own thoughts.

One of the perennial questions in urban design for those who get caught up in the details is the question of city block size.  Since the organic texture of older cities such as Rome, Paris, or London isn't easy to prescribe, people instead focus their interest on the best layout of a planned city.  And the size of an individual block often becomes a major decision.  The answer is, of course, there is no perfect size, as there are trade-offs in any complex decision.  With respect to block size, the primary trade-off is between walkability and taxability.  The later really isn't a word, so a better term would be infrastructure efficiency.

The most basic infrastructure element of any community is the transportation corridor between the various properties that make up a community, whether they are residences, retailers, offices, schools, hospitals, warehouses, factories, or other less common establishments.  In developed countries, most of the transportation corridors are dedicated to motor vehicle traffic.  In American practice, the corridors are called streets or roads, depending on the context.  Streets in urban areas usually consist of space for motor vehicles to circulate, flanked by space for pedestrians.  They usually include sections for parking and for vegetation, and sometimes include dedicated lanes for cycling.  The entire publicly-owned area between the other properties is referred to as the right-of-way. Roads in rural regions are generally built solely to accommodate vehicles.  Suburban regions see a mix of street elements and can be called either roads or streets.  Fancier names such as avenue and boulevard are usually applied to major arterials in cities, and highways to major inter-city roads.

Any transportation corridor that is more advanced than a dirt path must be paid for somehow.  Usually, that is accomplished through taxes.  In America, property developers often build or substantially upgrade the local streets or roads that pass in front of most residences, and then property taxes pay for ongoing maintenance.  Excise and income taxes pay for new regional and national roads, and for their ongoing maintenance.  The exact division of funding is determined by various agreements, the details of which aren't all that important here.

The efficiency element comes from the ratio of private, taxable space to public, tax-supported space.  For instance, a 200' by 200' block (measured from the centerline of the street) with a 100' right-of-way (ROW) on each side leaves only a 100' by 100' plot of land which can be taxed.  That is only 25% (100,000 square feet) of the entire block (400,000sf).  Such a configuration would result in a lot of infrastructure for each property to support, increasing the taxes on each property.  A more realistic ROW of 50' surrounding the same block gives a ratio of about 56%.  A 300' square block bounded by a 60' ROW yields 64%, and a 600' square block with a 80' ROW yields 75%.

The other side of the trade-off is walkability.  For the purposes of this discussion I am going to leave aside the debate over the value of walkability itself.  But assuming it is a desirable quality doesn't do much to define it, of course.  What makes an area walkable is a topic covered in a tremendous amount of writing by architects and urban planners.  The elements that are often cited as contributing to the quality walkability include: the width of the roadway (if present), sidewalk (if separate), and bikeway (if present); the presence and specifics of vegetation; the presence and specifics of street furniture and other physical elements; the number of housing units, quantity of office space, and presence or absence of retail establishments; the size and aesthetic qualities of the surrounding buildings; and the size of a block.

Basically, big blocks are a chore to walk along and between.  Explaining the unpleasantness of between blocks is easy - fewer streets means each street has to handle more traffic, increasing its width and the danger to pedestrians who cross it.  The unpleasantness of along comes from the traffic of adjacent streets, and the fewer number of paths to a point.  Cars - even electric cars - are noisy, and the more there are and the faster they go, the less pleasant it is for pedestrians nearby.  If the cars are directly adjacent to the sidewalk, that can make pedestrians feel unsafe.  Fewer streets also reduces the number of buildings, establishments, and other points of interest that a pedestrian experiences on a trip, making it less interesting.  And finally, big blocks reduce the number of paths between two points, leaving a pedestrian fewer opportunities to shape a journey to pass things that are pleasing, or to combine different elements in a new way.

To get back answering the question in the title of the post, one way would be to look at existing examples.  For instance, Manhattan is famously gridded, with the pattern established at 14th St. dominating the plan all the way up to the northern end.  Blocks there are mostly 264' in depth, but vary in length between 500' and 900'.  Many people have commented that the latter number is too large.  However, Manhattan has a much more linear shape than most urban centers, which are not so tightly bounded by water, and the long sides of the blocks are perpendicular to the primary direction of travel.   Chicago has a number of grid sizes, including 400' by 400' in The Loop, and 330' by 660' in the Little Village neighborhood.  The planning of Phoenix is mostly dominated by car-oriented superblocks of 5280' square, and though they are subdivided finely close to downtown, very little is walkable.  Barcelona has a grid size of approximately 440' by 440', and gridded portions of Madrid are similar.  In Stockholm, blocks vary considerably, but many are about 330' by 560'.  Turin, which has a core originally laid out by the Romans, also has a range of block sizes, with some as small as 180' by 280'.  Grids in the Buenos Aires metropolis have several different orientations, but most blocks are about 440' by 440'.

Since that way provides no clear answer, only a range of values that isn't surprising, I will continue my exploration further in subsequent posts.

Monday, July 5, 2021

Ending the Forever Stupidity

There's just no way this isn't a positive development:

The departure from Bagram follows President Biden’s decision in April to withdraw all U.S. troops from Afghanistan by September, ending what he and other critics have called a “forever war.” As the Taliban launched a bloody offensive and encircled numerous provincial capitals, defense leaders last month briefly considered slowing the military’s departure from the air base, officials said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. The Biden administration ultimately decided to continue the withdrawal.

The end of a significant military presence will be bad for many Afghans.  There's no point in pretending otherwise.  But, ultimately, America can't fix Afghanistan, and there is no reason to continue failing at the task, which never should have been undertaken in the first place.  America should have withdrawn long ago, but didn't due mostly to internal reasons.

A sure sign of a failing state is the inability to adapt to new information.  I am cheered by Biden's willingness to adapt.

Already there has been a dramatic reduction of drone attacks and other types of airstrikes, which once reached thousands a year. “The [United States] appears to be in a holding pattern in most conflict theaters that it still has a presence in—with no reported strikes in Yemen, Libya, Pakistan, or Somalia since Biden took office. U.S. strikes are continuing in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria—though at historically low rates,” said Chris Woods of the London-based Airwars monitoring organization, considered perhaps the most reliable tracker of U.S. airstrikes around the world.

Even in the early 2000s it was clear drone strikes were overused, and again in retrospect it was bad policy to use them outside of the immediate theater of battle.

The White House team is also seeking a broader reorientation toward what the president has called “the battles for the next 20 years, not the last 20,” including climate change, the threat from China, COVID-19-type pandemics, and America’s economic and social problems at home.
Finally, some foreign policy that makes sense.  There will be pushback from the usual suspects - the DoD, the MIC, the Blob, warmongers, deeply concerned centrists, and Repuke opportunists.  But if Biden continues to push foreign policy in the directions outlined, American will be better off in the short term and long term.

Tuesday, June 22, 2021

Is the United States Senate the World's Longest Running Circle Jerk?

Views differ, but the fact that its own rules required it to hold a cloture vote on a motion to proceed strongly supports an affirmative answer.

Hopefully Manchin and Sinema will learn something from a practical example of what people have been pointing out for months.

Friday, June 18, 2021

Leaky Arguments

 Everyone else has a take on the lab leak hypothesis (not yet a theory!) so here's mine:

1.  Nobody has proof about anything as of today (6/18/21).

2.  In this highly polarized and highly online era, it is nearly impossible to have a rational conversation about anything without it being turned into a partisan issue.

3.  Given this environment, it is important to question the motivations of anyone pushing the issue without substantial new information arising.  The hypothesis is currently being pushed by a combination of right-wingers and contrarians.  It is indirectly supported by other parts of the media who know a good controversy attracts eyeballs, which most of the media is in the business of selling.

4.  In several ways China has acted suspiciously regarding the origins of the pandemic.  Whether this is because the first instinct of any authoritarian government is to restrict information during a crisis, or because there was actually an incident to cover up, is unknown.

5.  The lab leak hypothesis, in some - but not all - of its forms, is not implausible.  But the question is whether the hypothesis is directly supported or has very strong circumstantial evidence.

6.  A natural origin has not been ruled out.  In fact, zoonosis is the origin of most communicable viral diseases, included but not limited to chicken pox, avian flu, swine flu, ebola, SARS, and MERS.  That means absent any strong evidence to the contrary, zoonosis via direct animal-human contact is still the most likely origin.

7.  The issue certainly won't be resolved by amateurs arguing online.  The investigation will take several years of real-world work by professionals.

8.  Even in the absence of any proof of a leak, labs doing research on highly communicable viruses should re-evaluate their containment procedures.

Wednesday, June 16, 2021

Open Letter on the Filibuster

 Dear Senator,

I am writing you today to urge you in the strongest possible terms to work to eliminate the Senate procedure known as the filibuster. I feel it is an anti-democratic anachronism, and its continued existence imperils the future of American democracy itself.

As you most likely know, the filibuster originated as a gap in the rules in 1806, but has been elevated to a principle over the years. However, there is no mention in the 1787 Constitution or its amendments of any super-majority requirement for normal legislation. Treaties, conviction of impeached officials, and constitutional amendments are among several defined actions requiring a super-majority. On the other hand, the Constitution specifically states that “a majority of each [chamber] shall constitute a quorum to do business,” which means that common legislation was expected to be passed with a lower level of consensus. Unfortunately, recent Senate practice has been that a super-majority is required to pass any controversial legislation that cannot be squeezed into the reconciliation process. Continuing that practice will preclude the passage of any important bill in the 117th Congress.

Removing the filibuster will require you to pressure other members of the Democratic Caucus, most notably Sen. Sinema of Arizona and Sen. Manchin of West Virginia, to join you in moving America forward. Both have expressed the mistaken notion that the filibuster is a core element of American democracy, despite its absence from the Constitution and the well-documented use of the procedure in opposing civil rights legislation. But, honestly, I have no idea whatsoever about how to make either of them understand that not eliminating the filibuster and not allowing votes for important bills like S.1 or JLVRA is critical to the future of American democracy. I can only communicate to you that you, their fellow Democratic Senator, must use all the tools available to you and the party in order to change their minds. Senators Sinema and Manchin have, in effect, decided that the fetish of bipartisanship is more important than the ability of American citizens to vote in free and fair elections. This is obviously insane, as a large majority of the Republican Party supports the January 6 insurrection, which had the goal of overturning a free and fair election through violence aimed at members of Congress. I see no reason to seek “comity” with people who excuse a mob that seemed eager to harm elected officials, and that at the state level are furiously passing bills aimed at restricting the right to vote.

Thank you for your time, and I wish you the best of luck at persuading Senators Sinema and Manchin to change their minds on the filibuster and the future of American democracy.

Monday, May 10, 2021

GIGO vs MR

So, my last two posts were clearly pretty poor predictions. Biden won exactly 306 EVs, as I predicted, but I was overly optimistic on the other counts. Biden won 7 million more votes instead of 14, the Senate is 50-50 instead of 52-48, and Democrats lost 13 seats in the House instead of gaining 8 seats. Back in March of 2020, I said I expected the death toll from the COVID-19 pandemic to be between 25,000 and 30,000. But as of this writing (5/10/21) the official toll is around 600,000, and the total number of excess deaths is approaching 1,000,000. So why was I so far off on each?

In the case of the election, I think the issue was garbage in, garbage out. Polling was off, and since I am not a professional pundit with my own polling firm, my predictions were mostly reflecting the information I saw around me, which was garbage. In the case of the pandemic, I think the issue was motivated reasoning. I just could not bring myself to type in larger numbers, since I found the idea too horrible and too improbable. How could my country, a technically advanced democracy, screw up 50-year old public health protocols that bad? I was motivated by national pride to alter my prediction from what some simple calcualations gave.

 Anyway, hopefully I will learn two lessons.