Friday, June 18, 2021

Leaky Arguments

 Everyone else has a take on the lab leak hypothesis (not yet a theory!) so here's mine:

1.  Nobody has proof about anything as of today (6/18/21).

2.  In this highly polarized and highly online era, it is nearly impossible to have a rational conversation about anything without it being turned into a partisan issue.

3.  Given this environment, it is important to question the motivations of anyone pushing the issue without substantial new information arising.  The hypothesis is currently being pushed by a combination of right-wingers and contrarians.  It is indirectly supported by other parts of the media who know a good controversy attracts eyeballs, which most of the media is in the business of selling.

4.  In several ways China has acted suspiciously regarding the origins of the pandemic.  Whether this is because the first instinct of any authoritarian government is to restrict information during a crisis, or because there was actually an incident to cover up, is unknown.

5.  The lab leak hypothesis, in some - but not all - of its forms, is not implausible.  But the question is whether the hypothesis is directly supported or has very strong circumstantial evidence.

6.  A natural origin has not been ruled out.  In fact, zoonosis is the origin of most communicable viral diseases, included but not limited to chicken pox, avian flu, swine flu, ebola, SARS, and MERS.  That means absent any strong evidence to the contrary, zoonosis via direct animal-human contact is still the most likely origin.

7.  The issue certainly won't be resolved by amateurs arguing online.  The investigation will take several years of real-world work by professionals.

8.  Even in the absence of any proof of a leak, labs doing research on highly communicable viruses should re-evaluate their containment procedures.

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