So how am I doing so far with my predictions?
- We're still in recession, yammering about green shoots not withstanding.
- We're on pace to reach 10% for U-3 soon. I was optimistic about U-6; it's already at 16% and will top out around 20-21% next year. Update 2009/07/07: I think U-3 will top out around 12%.
- Oil never got as low as I predicted, so the petro-states aren't suffering as much as I thought they would.
- The dollar has weakened slightly, but I expected most of the decline to come in the second half.
- No signs of a country leaving the Euro yet. I'll almost certainly be wrong here.
- China's economy has weakened some, as has the renminbi, but so far the country has held up better than I expected. But the strength could be illusory as some of the economic indicators are contradictory, and investors apparently are doubling down in the export sector.
- Germany and Japan have suffered significantly. I haven't checked on the smaller European exporters or the smaller Asian ones.
- Both Chrysler and GM filed for bankruptcy, though later than I expected. I did not expect Fiat to come to the rescue, but it still remains to be seen if Chrysler can hold on with the market at ~9.7M units SAAR.
- The banksters still roam free, sucking blood out of helpless taxpayers. The Fed has not had to inflate its balance sheet further, however.
- CRE prices are getting hammered, but GGP is the only major property company that has filed for bankruptcy so far. Not as many major retailers have folded as I expected.
- Housing prices continue to fall, and the decline in volume has slowed. I am surprised that more major builders haven't taken a dirt nap, but maybe I missed the announcements.
So far the economy is performing better than I predicted. Is that because of my tendency to be pessimistic, or because of my tendency to be early? Check back in December.