Monday, July 6, 2009

Mid-term Report

So how am I doing so far with my predictions?

  1. We're still in recession, yammering about green shoots not withstanding.
  2. We're on pace to reach 10% for U-3 soon. I was optimistic about U-6; it's already at 16% and will top out around 20-21% next year. Update 2009/07/07: I think U-3 will top out around 12%.
  3. Oil never got as low as I predicted, so the petro-states aren't suffering as much as I thought they would.
  4. The dollar has weakened slightly, but I expected most of the decline to come in the second half.
  5. No signs of a country leaving the Euro yet. I'll almost certainly be wrong here.
  6. China's economy has weakened some, as has the renminbi, but so far the country has held up better than I expected. But the strength could be illusory as some of the economic indicators are contradictory, and investors apparently are doubling down in the export sector.
  7. Germany and Japan have suffered significantly. I haven't checked on the smaller European exporters or the smaller Asian ones.
  8. Both Chrysler and GM filed for bankruptcy, though later than I expected. I did not expect Fiat to come to the rescue, but it still remains to be seen if Chrysler can hold on with the market at ~9.7M units SAAR.
  9. The banksters still roam free, sucking blood out of helpless taxpayers. The Fed has not had to inflate its balance sheet further, however.
  10. CRE prices are getting hammered, but GGP is the only major property company that has filed for bankruptcy so far. Not as many major retailers have folded as I expected.
  11. Housing prices continue to fall, and the decline in volume has slowed. I am surprised that more major builders haven't taken a dirt nap, but maybe I missed the announcements.

So far the economy is performing better than I predicted. Is that because of my tendency to be pessimistic, or because of my tendency to be early? Check back in December.

No comments: